PANDEMIC DIARY

ITS NOT A PREDICTION

OCTOBER 29, 2020

Weather prediction is, at the very least, an inexact science: [Actual forecasts]
”The sun will absolutely shine out of your butt today”.
”Today clouds will roll in and blacken the sky however, not as dark as my soul”.
“We can look forward to a sunny day that will continue to heat up. Get Back, you brutal yellow globe”!
”The forecast is for a cold, constant drizzle. Go home Mother Nature! You’re drunk.”

Of course, ‘normal’ weather forecasts are also comical and statistically speaking not more accurate:
”Variable clouds with a chance of light showers”.
”Intermittent rain with periods of intermittent sunshine”.
”The day will start off with wind and the wind might continue into the afternoon and evening hours”.
”Partial sunshine will make for a nice day. While periods of possible showers might dampen your plans”.

Nothing here makes sense. Nothing means anything. It’s all hedge and no forecast. A jumble of equivocation: Patchy; Partial; Mostly; Variable. I especially like the one that says, as an example, “rain likely in your area” - the “area” being a 50 mile swath of countryside. How likely? What area…within the area?
“Your guess is as good as mine.” should be their slogan.

Right now, I am less concerned about the weather forecast than I am about the political forecasts, which in 2016 more resembled weather forecasting. The Republicans were crying in their milk well into the wee hours. The Democrats were prematurely popping the corks of Champagne bottles, toasting their impending victory. Impending??? There is another of those words.

Last night, Adele and I attended a virtual meeting with Larry Sabato, who is the premier political forecaster in the business - rated #1 with FiveThirtyEight rated #2. A chaired professor of Political Science at The University of Virginia, he is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist, Founder and President of Center for Politics, promoting public engagement and civic participation, and frequent guest commentator on CNN, MSNBC, and FOX News. In other words, he is well regarded for his methodology and accuracy.

This is Larry Saboto’s Crystal Ball prediction for the Presidential Election. (you can view online)

What he said last night that struck me is that over the past four year pollsters have learned a lot. They have learned of whole new sets of variables that were not in play in 2016: White non-college graduates; Outlying districts within States; Evangelicals. These were all glommed into larger, more inclusive groups. Their importance as swing voters was not fully appreciated. And, there are four times as many high quality polling organizations

If you know of anyone in those marginal or “Toss-ups” states, please call them and persuade them to vote. Also, Larry Sabato will be coming out with a final map for the Presidential race, Senate, and Congress on Monday. So, stay tuned.