PANDEMIC DIARY

A NEW DAY
January 19, 2021

This is the last day of Trump’s presidency. (lower case intentional) On the evening of election day for the Georgia Senate seats, I stayed up as late as I was able until my physical exhaustion collided with my emotional unease as it appeared more than likely that the final outcome of the Georgia Senate Race would not be finalized until the early morning hours. Despite my respect and affection for Steve Kornacki, the brilliant and lovably frenetic statistician/analyst on MSNBC, I could no longer parse the numbers in a manner that informed me with any confidence of the outcome of these races. However, the last thing I remember watching was the image of a brightly jacketed, cap-wearing James Carville who entrances with his political savvy and succulent Southern drawl, effectively declaring the race over and the forecast that the Dems would win both seats. That assured projection, like a child’s lullaby, lulled me to sleep.

As we all know now, both Warnock and Osoff won those seats and provided a sweeter taste to what might have been a very bitter cup of coffee that morning. Still, even that early news was not nearly as sweet as today. I just finished watching the ceremony President-to-be Joe Biden requested as his last formal act before becoming President of the United States - an observance of the over 400,000 Americans who died from the Covid-19 pandemic. It was, I sense in keeping with the values of the man, a quiet commemoration in which a humble nurse from Detroit, Michigan sang Amazing Grace and Joe Biden delivered a brief and heartfelt message to the family’s and friends of love ones who died from this wretched contagion. Then, alongside the Lincoln Reflecting Pool, 400 candles were lit each representing 1,000 lost souls whose lives were brightly shimmering in the water, like the glimmer of a comforting memory.

Today will also be a time of reflection. Inauguration Day. There is normally a passing of a symbolic baton, the baton of democracy, of a peaceful transition, the baton of continuity, and the baton of unity. This administration has dropped the baton, stepped on, demeaned, cursed, defiled and abused it. In a way, it is appropriate and fitting that the ‘orangeman’ will not be attending the Inauguration. There is nothing I can think of that he has accomplished, no words that he has spoken, no gesture he has made, no morality he has displayed, no ethics he has lived by that I would wish to be passed on. May his non-attendance be a full and complete break with this past.

I extend to our newly elected team, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, my very best wishes for a successful four years. May the United States of America once again work for common cause - peace, justice, equality and prosperity for all.

PANDEMIC DIARY

ITS NOT A PREDICTION

OCTOBER 29, 2020

Weather prediction is, at the very least, an inexact science: [Actual forecasts]
”The sun will absolutely shine out of your butt today”.
”Today clouds will roll in and blacken the sky however, not as dark as my soul”.
“We can look forward to a sunny day that will continue to heat up. Get Back, you brutal yellow globe”!
”The forecast is for a cold, constant drizzle. Go home Mother Nature! You’re drunk.”

Of course, ‘normal’ weather forecasts are also comical and statistically speaking not more accurate:
”Variable clouds with a chance of light showers”.
”Intermittent rain with periods of intermittent sunshine”.
”The day will start off with wind and the wind might continue into the afternoon and evening hours”.
”Partial sunshine will make for a nice day. While periods of possible showers might dampen your plans”.

Nothing here makes sense. Nothing means anything. It’s all hedge and no forecast. A jumble of equivocation: Patchy; Partial; Mostly; Variable. I especially like the one that says, as an example, “rain likely in your area” - the “area” being a 50 mile swath of countryside. How likely? What area…within the area?
“Your guess is as good as mine.” should be their slogan.

Right now, I am less concerned about the weather forecast than I am about the political forecasts, which in 2016 more resembled weather forecasting. The Republicans were crying in their milk well into the wee hours. The Democrats were prematurely popping the corks of Champagne bottles, toasting their impending victory. Impending??? There is another of those words.

Last night, Adele and I attended a virtual meeting with Larry Sabato, who is the premier political forecaster in the business - rated #1 with FiveThirtyEight rated #2. A chaired professor of Political Science at The University of Virginia, he is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist, Founder and President of Center for Politics, promoting public engagement and civic participation, and frequent guest commentator on CNN, MSNBC, and FOX News. In other words, he is well regarded for his methodology and accuracy.

This is Larry Saboto’s Crystal Ball prediction for the Presidential Election. (you can view online)

What he said last night that struck me is that over the past four year pollsters have learned a lot. They have learned of whole new sets of variables that were not in play in 2016: White non-college graduates; Outlying districts within States; Evangelicals. These were all glommed into larger, more inclusive groups. Their importance as swing voters was not fully appreciated. And, there are four times as many high quality polling organizations

If you know of anyone in those marginal or “Toss-ups” states, please call them and persuade them to vote. Also, Larry Sabato will be coming out with a final map for the Presidential race, Senate, and Congress on Monday. So, stay tuned.